More fuel for the fire and support for your late summer 2008 forecast. The Homebuilders convention was covered by a CNBC reporter who said she has never seen a gloomier bunch at a convention except for maybe the 8-track industry convention.
At least there is no spin from the builders, their cheif economist put a guy holding a lifepreserver on the cover of it’s convention program with the words “grab on.” He admits no recovery this year, maybe next year and said priced were still too high. A stock analyst (and I’ve seen others same the same thing) said the homebuilders stock tends to recover a year before the market does so in the next three to six months he suggests buying homebuilder stock, that would put the recovery start at late 2008. Latesummer 2008, your armchair economic analysis seems to have support with the experts, you may be on to something.
One other note is that a lot of people think a decline will take years but the NAHB chief economist says it is happening very fast and he had to dramatically change his forecast that he made only a few months ago.
