Question… On that 4.3% fixed rate you have had since 04, was there any neg am going on? Also yes if I were you I would simply bite the bullet and grab the quickest 30 year fixed rate that you can. If you are planning on keeping the home for more then 4 years then buy down the rate as much as you can as well. The other possibility is to run the numbers. See how much you would save paying the lower rate for two more years, then assume at loan reset that you will max out the new rate. You did not say what your ARM indexes to (Libor, Prime etc…) Make sure the cap is the cap that you pay, not the cap on the index rate because the loan will index to the rate plus some margin.
Anyways you should be able to run the numbers to see where the crossover point is. At some point down the road it will have made sense to refi but it may be several years depending on your balance.
The big risk is the depreciation as it will be unlikely your home will appraise more in the future then it does today.
