NSR,
That is one of the most brilliant observations I have read on this board. When I think back in time, that is EXACTLY what happened here in SD. My area exploded between mid 2003 and mid 2004 at which point it stopped. Between mid 2004 and 2005 places like Oceanside and San Marcos boomed.
I never thought about it the way you just laid it out but that is what Is aw happen.