The only monkey wrench is a human caused crisis such as one of the new nuke countries trying it out on a neighbor. That could usher in a whole new set of rules and could justify rationing, new taxes, increased surveillance on citizens, etc. Otherwise, I agree with the 2012 date for a recovery. The only reason it is being touted now is because of the 2010 Congressional races. When the economy is down, the voters turn on the people in power. By claiming the recession is over, they are evading the truth especially the real unemployment numbers and the real foreclosure numbers.