built and sold new for 800k in 1992, sold for 875k in 1998, out here, from 1992 to 1998, the market was flat, in 1998 200k got you a nice 2500 sq ft tract house, then they went nuts and tract homes jumped to 600k then back to about 300k, now that 200k 1998 house is 300-350k, still above it’s 1992-1998 numbers but well below 2006 prices.
So this high end place’s bottom was 875k, I’d guess it’s peak at over 2 mil, it listed a year ago as an organic listing for 2 mil, and has been reduces over time to 1.4. But it’s tax rolls list 4k sq ft and it now has 6k sq ft, so the current owners may have added 1/3 to the sq ft. Even without that, if the place went for let’s say 1.2, it would be 4x a nice tract home nearby and in 1992-1998 it was 4x as well, so I’d say it’s found it’s reality. This supports the notion that the ultra high end took it’s hit in 2009, while the mid to high took it in 2008. Things don’t always happen at the same time but they find a way to become balanced.
However, I think this place might go below 1.2, it may have an overshoot still in store, because the hefner pad in my previous post was 1.2 and I think this older one doesn’t come close. The only trick with these is that with such little data and comps, is the hefner pad just a steal or is this overpriced, I don’t know, my head hurts from thinking of how many maids and gardners you’d need for any of them. I have friends that have these pads, I attend their parties, then go home and the next day i mow my lawn in ten minutes, it’s better that way.
