[quote=outtamojo]Them blogs I use to keep an eye on low probability events. The bloggers like to fish in the deep ocean and every once in a while somebody gets it right and
becomes the guru de jour. I don’t give any blogger credit for predicting this housing bust as it was in plain sight to anyone with an ounce of cynicism,[/quote]

I don’t consider many of the predictions low probability; they just take longer to materialize than most think.