Forgive me for a dumb question, theoretical speculation is great, but why not envision a scenarion in which the rate does go up 2-4%, but guess what, the prices don’t go down nearly as much to make the waiting for higher rate/lower price worth your while? (in which case it would be better to buy now w/ 20% down – not talking large downs). I am just asking, isn’t that a good possibility? Is that a carved in stone rule??

We’ve already seen that the overall prices didn’t fall back to fundamentals (in the areas mentioned by OP) and they are rising yet again. Just a couple % increase in interest rate may slow then down or stop them, but may not lower the price much….in these areas (and 20% down)…. I am just saying….