[quote]there’s a sharp drop off in population from 6500 40-50 year olds to 3000 30-40 year olds in Scripps Ranch.

that’s a greater than 50% drop off in population. [/quote]

That’s in large part because it’s hard for most 30 year olds to afford a house in Scripps Ranch (even if they want to live their to begin with). It’s a “move up” neighborhood. The pattern is exactly the same in PQ, Poway, Carmel Valley.

Where are all the 30 year olds? Mira Mesa, Clairemont, Mission Valley, University City.

IIRC, median first-time homebuyer age is low 30’s. Median woman’s age at first childbirth is also pushing 30 (especially among college-educated women, typical in Scripps Ranch), second child occurs closer to 35, fathers are even older … by the time children are in high school, parents are usually in the 45-50 bracket.

To prove the “inevitable decline of SRHS” hypothesis, we really need to demonstrate that there’s an insufficient inflow of new families with children to replace children of current residents who grow up and leave.