A couple weeks ago I saw an analyst on CNBC that really resonated with me. He was talking about the pyschology of bears vs bulls and the cases they bring. He pointed out that the bears bring rational facts based upon what is actually going on right now. On the otherhand the bulls case is irrational and based upon a better tomorrow regardless of what the facts are today. BY definition the bulls hypothesis requires a change for the better in the future.

His point is that at face value the bears will always have what seems to be the stronger argument. In every case the bears will be more rational, more fact based and better substantiated. In spite of that, they obviously arent always right because things change and things can get better.

I had never looked at it that way before and it really struck as something often overlooked but so obvious.