[quote=sdrealtor]ROTFLMAO..Did he actually say numbers dont lie? What a moron. Of course they do, they say whatever you want them to. Back in my CPA days we had a joke. Client walks into his CPA’s office and says what does 1+1 equal? CPA goes over to the window and pulls the shade down before asking “what do you want to equal?”
Lets assume your numbers are accurate (which I know they arent but who gives a damn). There are over 4,000 MLS listings in contingent status (i.e. short sales most likely in those numbers you are quoting). There are 6700 MLS listings in pending status (conservatively 1/3rd of them are short sales). Thats about 6500 properties you are claiming as shadow inventory that are currently being digested by this raging market at full retail prices. There goes more than half of your shadow inventory. Its not hiding anywhere. Its sitting on the MLS under contract with piles of back up offers. That doesnt even consider all the loan mods in process.
Read my post above. It was said by one of the top Bear analysts on Wall St. He understands that the bear case will always appear stronger because it is based on rational current data. He is also smart of to understand that isnt always correct.
I dont want this to end as I am making a killing off it. If the market goes down for at least 2 more years like it has, my business will flourish. If it turns around my business will suffer dearly. I hope you (Rt 66) are right and it struggles for another 5 to 10 years but know and see enough to understand that is unlikely to be true.
Lets be clear on one thing. We are not saying its a great time to buy. What we are saying is “You are a moron!”[/quote]
“We are not saying its a great time to buy. What we are saying is “You are a moron!”
We? We who? You got a mouse in your pocket?
RealtyTrac has great feature called “Listed” that cross references its foreclosure listings with the MLS. Distressed properties that are for sale are listed as such and those that are sold are listed as such.
Of the 4953 Preforclosures I found just a very few for sale as short sales. Of course none of the 3722 in auction status are short sales. As for the Bank Owned homes more are listed in that category as being for sale (of course) or sold but it’s mostly the really old ones and it’s still a small percentage of the 4046 total.
So, again the figures and data show that your wild ass guess is not accurate and your theory full of holes.
It does not take the mysteries of a highly trained realtor’s knowledge (TIC) to find these things, anyone can browse through RTrac free and see what I am saying.
Since you are so fond of speculating and pulling numbers out of your butt allow me (the moron) to speculate (although with some common sense involved).
Those 4000 contingent status that you speculate are mostly short sales, are likely homes that the owners contacted the banks and notified they were no longer going to or were able to perform and requested a short sale. Most probably never had a NOD filled and therefore are invisible to foreclosure data but are part of the shadow inventory problem.
The last short sale I bid on was not listed in any foreclosure stats until the bank decided against the idea of a short sale and filled the NOD two months later. In short, a majority of your speculative bunghole numbers would more rationally be ADDED to the horrid foreclosure data figures, not subtracted from.
I can’t prove any of that but if you are going to argue with speculation then I guess I’ll fight speculation with rational speculation?
