My observations on 4S ranch (and think why the traffic is much heavier than last 2 months):

— the builders are releasing much fewer units than they would have done in the past. Only about 8 units per builder per release, which artificially lower the suppler. It’s interesting to see whether the builder would make more profit by releasing more units with lower prices, or fewer houses with relatively higher prices;

— at this point of time, it’s hard to image that there are any flippers in the market buying. Therefore, I believe most of the buyers are in good financial shape to buy and ride out the possible down market. And most of these now buyers may have waited for quite a while, and decide not to wait any longer for various reasons: family, wife, quality of life, a good deal. There are a few quite neighbors in the luxury apartment community where I currently live just bought and moved out, one told me that the rental offices will require 2 months of rent penalty for breaking lease cause there are quite a few are breaking them and moving out because they bought.

— I computed the $ per square feet numbers, now $/sqrt of new houses in 4S reached the level in Jan 2004, which is about $218/sq ft, still much higher than that in 2002/2003, but way below 2005 (> $300/sqft).

personally I think if one can wait, there is no loss/risk in doing that, may get better deals near the end of this year since builders will give incentives near the end of a year for reporting reason (that’s what I told at the end of last year, correct this if it’s misleading because the builders were giving great incentives at the end of last year only because of the down market,not because of the time of the year).