[quote=temeculaguy]The only thing that doesn’t make sense is the size of the crowd that has prime jumbo loans and job losses. I’m sure there are plenty, but are there really millions? Most of the unemployed in the numbers between the good days of 5% unemployment and today’s 11% unemployment were the marginally employed and recently employed, not all but most. The demographic that takes prime jumbo’s tends to be better employed and better equipped to become re-employed, they took a hit but a smaller one thus far. Not enough for a theory, but it does raise some doubts that this comes to fruition like subprime did.[/quote]

A few thoughts for you on that.

I recall reading on Calc Risk that the size of the prime pool is significantly larger than that of all the others combined but I just can’t find his posts with the numbers. I could be wrong, but that’s what I remember.

Also, because prime loans tend to be larger, the size of the prime loan pool in dollars is also very large.

You know, it used to be that when people bought a house, they had to get a prime loan or no loan at all. Thus, the number of prime borrowers is quite large. Sorry, I don’t remember the numbers.

But, of course, you are talking prime jumbo. So, consider that a 1% default rate on 100 $1M loans has the same effect on the bank as a 5% default rate on 100 $200K loans.

Also, realize that while the number of jumbo mortgages is small, the number of jumbo properties is also small. So, if prime jumbo mortgages go bad and that inventory hits the market, it will still have an strong effect on the top-end.

Lastly, the low-end market is pretty hot while the high end is not. If these do hit the market, the demand side may not come back as fast as the low end did.

Still, I’m with the rest of those who have heard this prediction one too many times. Lets see if it actually happens.