Until the housing bubble Phoenix home prices were pretty much stuck at around build cost. Older homes actually got dinged for “depreciation” unless they were in highly desirable areas.

Long term…..Phoenix has huge chunks of undeveloped land within the city and huge chunks of abandoned developed land that can be redeveloped, not to mention the vast areas surrounding phoenix.

I think the future of Phoenix is the past in regards to housing, not much above build cost, since there is plenty of land and plenty of builders with cheap labor. As inflation takes prices up over the years you will eventually reach your purchase price but in REAL DOLLARS real estate will never be what they were.