I know this is a micro look at a macro issue, but right in my tiny little townhouse development, I’ve observed the following recent activity.

Last year my landlord offered to sell me the 1660 sqft unit I rent in LaCosta, for “about $500k”. After finding this site, and over several months of contemplating, I declined. During this time, a slightly larger (1800 sqft) unit across the street went on sale for $565K. Not a single look see, it showed like crap, because the owners left it a mess. After about 150 days it dropped to $535K. After about 300 days it dropped to $500K. So the bigger unit will now sell for less than my smaller one was thought to be worth a year ago, essentially on the same street.

In December, an identical unit to mine, except much more nicely upgraded, with granite, stainless, etc, went on the market for $470K. That unit sold in ~45 days, at $450K.

So the volume is there, so long as the pricing is realistic. Overprice a dump, it will sit forever. Price a nice property with realistic expectations, and it will sell. Looks like quite a few sellers in January understood this concept.

But the bottom line is, where my owner once expected $500K a year ago, he’ll now be lucky to get $435K for it. About 10% more and I might be tempted to reconsider:)