socratt, everyone is entitled to an opinion, personally when I run the redfin stats for homes that have been reduced in price, it’s almost exclusively customs on land, shorts and reo’s, that is where the big chunks are coming out these days, the tract homes are listing for the same or even a little more these days and selling in hours.
click the tab for price reduced, and check some out, I think they are getting hit late becuase thier owners had more financial resources to get by for longer, but banks aren’t that smart and they aren’t that organized.
paramount, I’m glad you have noticed the same thing, I figured you made mental notes of houses in your hood. It’s the hardest thing to impress on people who don’t live here, we don’t have a tsuinami on the horizon, it came through already, and the recovery is well underway, we fell first and hard, but half of the homes have changed hands for half price and the lawns are greening up again, home depot is busy again.
Anywone remember waiting hawk and matt making videos of tracts where every third lawn was brown two years ago. Two years ago L.A. news walked my hood with a reporter and showed how half the lawns were brown (that was the reson i began looking at this hood). They didn’t become part of the shadow inventory, the got bought by families who live in them now. We are almost out of peak FB’s, they’ve all been recycled. Each month, the price goes up ever so slightly, maybe 5k to the point that my model match in escrow is about 50k more than what I paid. I know nobody else will agree but we are eight months into this dead cat bounce, that’s a high bounce for a cat, I’d say I have a 50% chance of having lucked into the bottom.
Purely anectdotal but on my street we are down to just four original owners, all of the rest have bought for half price in the last 12 months. The final two that were vacant or trying a short, finally repo’d, were listed and were sold in hours, the lawns are going in and anyday I’ll meet the new neighbors. Of those four original owners, only one is showing any form of distress, but no nod yet, taxes are current, the other three made huge downs or paid cash and have no refi’s or helocs on file, so in the next year, maybe we could have one house go and be a part of that tsunami, big deal, last year it was one a month.
