The best market timer is my friends bds (see more below).
Campbell’s track record is mediocre. His sell signal came in 2002, way too early. He had a buy signal in 1994, a sell signal in 1995.
I think too many real estate bloggers have alienated themselves in an ivory tower. Campbell included. They pore over data, which is months old and lagging by one year or more. While it’s all very interesting, they miss out on what is happening, because they’re not out showing homes, talking with people, identifying new trends, changes in activity, or talking with someone doing those things.
Which real estate blogger made money during the real estate boom? Our host, Rich, didn’t buy any real estate at all, and missed out on the biggest real estate boom in San Diego history. I also failed to participate, but the point is that bloggers are also late in understanding the cycles. Not talking with realtors makes it even more difficult for them to spot changes in the trend.
The best market timer in this cycle is the person who identified spring 2004 as the peak in the San Diego housing market. The only people who got that right are sdrealtor, Bob Casagrand, and my friend bds. Even Rich and I missed it, because we were relying on the data. As I’ve learned, in real estate, the data lags and is biased. You simply cannot time the market by poring over data. You’ve got to be out in the streets working with clients and showing homes, or regularly talking with people who are.
My friend bds used market timing in her own real estate investing, buying at the lows and selling at the top in 3 real estate cycles in Southern CA. She is clever enough to get *two* (that’s right, 2) $500K capital gains tax write-offs in this housing cycle!
So anybody who claims to be a good market timer, should have profited handsomely from this housing boom, not just writing about it. Who fits that description?
