[quote=waiting for bottom][quote=sdcellar]yep. lots of rationalization. i almost feel like i’m at the car dealer and he’s trying to scam me with the old ‘what can you spend a month’ routine…[/quote]

If rationalization is “I bought a house I like with the payment I can afford” then, yes, I have rationalized.

Seriously, you guys think there is no risk to timing the bottom? What do you think rates will do between now and then? I’ll give you a hint, not down.

Again – if my recent purchase falls 20% but rates go to 7.5%, I will have the same payment. There is equal – at best for your argument – chance of these happening. From my POV, 7.5% is a certainty, 20% down is not.[/quote]

The problem with that thinking is that prices are partially dependent on interest rates. Rates go up, prices go down.

If a hypothetical 20% additional drop in prices was just caused by higher interest rates, your argument would be valid. But many think prices still have a way to go down independent of interest rates, with higher rates just making it more so. And in that case your payment would NOT be the same.