[quote=temeculaguy][quote=4plexowner]lots of rationalization about this and that – nobody addressed this undeniable fact:

3. what about the fact that previous real estate downturns in SoCal have been 6 to 7 years which puts a bottom in 2012 to 2014 at the earliest?[/quote]

I’ll address it, The six year cycle is not peak to bottom, it’s the peak to the start of the next cycle and it’s not always a flat line. The last cycle I timed completely wrong, bought in 1992 (chronilogically equivalent to 2006), was upside down for the next 5-6 years and was back to even in 1998, sold for what I paid, got my downpayment back and the transaction costs, but no profit to speak of. In that cycle, the actual bottom wasn’t 1998, things started to turn around in 1998, the best bargains weren’t in 1998. I did buy another house that year, I still got a decent deal, but 1995 and 1996 was when the real bargains could have been had. I couldn’t sell my place during that time, I tried, but I couldn’t sell without a loss until 1998. If I didn’t have a place that I needed to sell, if I had been older and wiser and possessed the balls to just keep my first house as a rental, I would have bought in 1995/1996, which was about three years after things peaked, not 6-7, by then, it was too late. Twice I have tried to time the cycle, but I was always both a seller and a buyer, and in time I learned that when you are both, it doesn’t matter so much. That is why this cycle I decided to rent during the decline.

2012-2014, anything can happen, we can be on the spam and ammo plan, who knows. But I’m gonna dance with the one that brung me, this is the third cycle I’ve watched and participated in, and my experience is that 2012-2014 will be too late, 2009/2010 is the buying season, as long as you don’t have to sell.[/quote]

I’d agree with this – we’re in escrow right now, closing within 2 weeks.

Is this the bottom? I don’t know. It may still have a way to fall, and it certainly will depend on which area you are looking in as well.

However, in the previous peak->trough cycles, the VAST majority of the actual price depreciation was in during the first few years of falling prices. The rest of the trough was generally flat appreciation. If you buy at the peak, or within a year or two of the peak, you really are in trouble. In previous cycles, if you bought 3-4 years out from the peak, you may not have timed the absolute bottom, but you will be in at a reasonable price and payment. A number of Rich’s articles this year show that this is the case now, at least in a sizeable chunk of San Diego’s areas. As far as I can see, we’ve seen the majority of price depreciation (at least in areas I was looking to buy in).

I’m not trying to time the absolute bottom – maybe if I was looking for an investment I would, but for my own home, I’m looking for a reasonable price, and a payment which is equivalent or better than rent for a similar place. Those conditions have been met, in my opinion, and with the caveat that I’m buying in an inland area – if I were set on buying something at the coast, I’d probably wait another year. My guess is that we’re at a similar point to ’95 in the previous cycle. If you had bought in ’95 in the previous cycle, you did just fine, even though you missed the absolute bottom by 2 years or so.