jg, it seems like median lags by 1.5 years. Prices started softening in the low end the in the late spring/summer of 2004, as inventory doubled over just 6 months, at the same time that sales were falling. To me, that is the offical peak. Lower end properties were taking longer to sell, and prices were starting to drop. That worked its way up to SFR which peaked in summer 05. The median price peaked in November 05, 6 months after the SFR home prices peaked and 18 months after the slowdown started.

While some home prices are down 15-20%, and others are flat I guess (from what some on this board are writing), the median is down only 5%.

So does anyone think in aggregate, the homes in San Diego are down only 5%?

Supposedly Case-Shiller is even more accurate, because it compares sales of the SAME SFR over time. His data shows San Diego prices are down only .98%.

The median is down more than Case-Shiller probably because more lower end homes are selling. Neither tells us what is going on. They lag by 1-2 years.