I agree that the UCLA forecast was overoptimistic and missed the point of additional sectors beyond housing already slowing. Sounds to me like they wrote their report 3-6 months ago.

We are definitely in an economic slowdown as confirmed by the GDP, Manufacturing, housing numbers. However, the service sector and corporate profits are still buzzing along, albeit at a slower pace.

I think all can agree that we are in a slowdown. The degree of the eventual bottom of that slowdown is what’s in question. However, I don;t believe that we are in a recession currently. (But can’t prove it either … until Q4 numbers come out)

There are slowdowns that are not classified as recessions that are both painful and necessary and almost as effective as recession to restore health and order to the economy.