Rus: I might be among the few here that don’t think Kim Jong-il is crazy. I think he’s far smarter than given credit for, and I think his calculus is a lot sharper than ours, Japan’s, China’s or Russia’s is.

He’s really holding the majority of the cards. If we force a North Korean implosion, then almost all bets are off. South Korea doesn’t want that and due to the fact that, if Kim is pushed into a corner, he’ll undoubtedly invade the South (which also imperils Japan). China doesn’t want to see an implosion that doesn’t end in war, but might end in tens of thousands of North Korean refugees heading into China and a possible North-South Korean reunification.

The US doesn’t want a possible war, either. My dad fought in both WWII (Pacific) and Korea with the Marines and he always thought Korea was far, far worse than WWII. He had fought at Okinawa during WWII and that campaign was considered horrific, so his sense that Korea was worse is saying something.

I think Kim is setting the tone for the Obama administration and seeing what he can get away with. He’s humbled the Clinton administration and Bush through two terms; so why not?