I think it is relatively easy to find sales above and below 2004 prices. As always it will vary with the area and housing type. As the fall has progressed I feel that the decline will be a bit more long and drawn out then I originally had hoped for unless we get a catalyst. The catalyst I was hoping for which was substantial foreclosure activity will happen but it will not be the earth shaker we are all hoping for. It looks like rates will stay low, and to compound things, I think lenders will get more creative and enable distressed sellers to hang around. I also have found that homeowners with equity are not giving in. They are simply pulling off and not selling and sitting tight. Don’t get me wrong, I think the decline will continue but I think it will be a more agonizing slower pace decline. Think about it, if the the other two cycles took 6 years, and we are only in year 2, then we still have a long ways to go right?
This spring will be ESPECIALLY important. I haven’t actually looked at numbers, but I believe the number of cancelled/expireds/withdrawns outweighs the number of sales this year.
The reduction of inventory since the peak is no surprise to any of us as that is seasonal. However Steve was correct that there is activity, the market is not as as any of us would have hoped. I REALLY HOPE we do see 30k in inventory this year because if we did, maybe that would change some of the sellers attitudes…
