asianautica, the auto sales doesn’t come from GDP data, but from the Commerce Department. The signs for a recession are all here: declining auto sales, declining new home starts, inverted yield curve. GDP growth is slowing, whether 1.6% or 2.2%, it is definitely getting less every quarter.
“The indicators suggests a recession is either ‘under way or set to begin within a few months.’ ”
It never warned of a recession that did not occur, since it started in 1968.
So yo think that this is the first time in 6 decades that the 3 recession indicators are wrong?
“The rule — unveiled here for the first time — is that if the figure is down 2 percent or more, a recession is either under way or set to begin within a few months. The figure fell to a negative 2.4 percent when June sales figures were released last week by the Census Bureau.
If things are miserable for America’s new-car dealers, can a recession be averted? History says it cannot and suggests a downturn may have already begun.
The available data go back to 1968, a period in which the American economy has recorded six recessions. The “dealer doldrums indicator,” as we will call it, called five of them, missing the 1981-82 recession only because it was not persuaded that the 1980 downturn had ever ended. It has never warned of a recession that did not occur.”
