You are correct in assuming than Jan 2004 was a major inflection point and we are already below that point in most cases. My personal opinion is that you are on the right track. I believe the 500 price is very realistic but am not so sure about the 450. It all comes down to how long it takes to get to 500. If it takes 2 or 3 years to get there, you need to continue the trend line for 2 0r 3 years keeping you close to the 500.

The bottom line is NO ONE knows what will happen. Your novice observations are as likely as anyone’s more educated ones. The best time to buy is when it makes sense for you personally and financially. Not before.