I would agree with Bob and FSD to the extent that there may be little if any penalty to waiting it out, and there may be a nice payoff if values deteriorate and rates don’t spike – and I agree with SDR that rates probably won’t go vertical any time soon.

I know there are many different ways to track the market and many different factors you can look at to try and predict what is going to happen. I am tracking the $1 million-plus market in some of SD’s best neighborhoods as I plan to move up when I feel we are close to a bottom in that neighborhood. Pt. Loma/OB is one of the areas that I am watching though not likely to buy there.

My latest data shows 64 $1 million-plus listings with only 12 $1 million-plus closings this year. I know we have not entered the so-called buying season yet but even with an anticipated increase in sales volume there is still alot of inventory at the high end. And with the “buying season” typically comes more listings, of course, which would offset an increase in sales volume.

I personally feel the high end ($1 mil plus) has quite a ways to fall yet. I’m guessing we will not start seeing the higher end neighborhoods bottoming out until 2011-12.