it’s not simple. it’s pretty complex. it’s impossible to predict any market short term. we may have some degree of confidence of where a market is going, but the way it gets there can be very surprising and the timing can be impossible to pin down. i’d say even if you knwo witha high degree of confidence that the general trajectory is down, you can be very surprised at the circuitous path it takes to get there. or as the late Kurt vonegut said, I think more or less, “Sometimes you ahve to go a very long ways out of your way to go a short ways correctly”.