[quote=temeculaguy]Cog, I think seasonally it is a horrible month to be buying, anywhere, throw in the interest rates and I guess we are where we are. The Fall/Winter is much better and may represent your best chance as far as competition goes. Inventory is lower than I’ve ever seen it right now. If you run a redfin of zip code 92592 and click the box to exclude the pendings and the shorts, there are four houses in redhawk for sale and 2 in morgan. On closer inspection, some were shorts but not designated on the listing except for in the narrative. under 40 south of temecula parkway total and 40 homes sold between may 1st and may 8th, so a one week supply is not a good time to sneak in and steal one.

It is actually a hotter market than it seems because of the way they list shorts, they keep them active in the mls with the low price to get bids and they just sit there active until escrow closes, sometimes many months later. When you call to inquire, there are more than a dozen offers well over that price, so it misleads you a little about what’s out there, you see for sale signs but you can’t buy them.

But here’s the rub, it should change a little later this year, in past markets, both buyers and sellers did a lot of business this time a year, especially for family sized homes. They all wanted to move in summer. But the children of the banks aren’t moving schools, so they aren’t tied to the spring like the buyers are. This October/November, there will be fewer buyers just because nobody wants to move in December, there also should be a push in inventory because of the foreclosure mratoriums expiration. The interest rate may tick up a tad, sending more to the sidelines temporarily, that’s the time to make offers.

It’s no secret that I’m optimistic about the area and this year, but what is happening now shouldn’t be trusted too much, prices should remain flat but I met my new neighbor yesterday who closed escrow last week, he paid 10% more than I did and for a smaller house (albeit his is in far better condition, almost turnkey, so it’s probably a tie), even I know that appreciation shouldn’t be happening, it’s the spring bounce, probably best to wait it out, not just this year, but every year, avoid spring. But he did pay about 50% off peak and was the winning bid, some of these bidding wars are only over a couple grand and start pretty low, so it’s not like there is a price increase frenzy.

I have another theory about spring that I’ve mentioned over the years. Most buyers are couples, couples often contain at least one female, the female of most mammals have a spring mating/nesting instinct. See where I’m going with this, we are still animals with some animal instincts, spring is a time to be outside, for change, for finding a new nest, to explore, while winter is a time to hunker down in the cave and stay put.

It helps to try and understand the behavior of others and to understand your own behavior, that way you can go against the grain a little. I’d give it till September at the least to see if it slows down. It will be a few years before prices go up, and even when they do it should be slow, so you have time to wait out the little upticks.

[/quote]

TG: Couple of things. First off, if the Lakers lose today, I’m driving to your house and holding you personally responsible. I’m not entirely sure what that means, but I have to blame somebody and I don’t know where Phil Jackson lives.

Secondly, I do think there is a sizable inventory of shadow inventory in both Temecula and Murrieta and I think the banks haven’t released it yet. I don’t think there is an ulterior motive here, I think it’s more a function of staffing and logistics, but it’s been propping prices up by restraining supply.

I spoke with a friend of mine who works at Wells Fargo and he confirmed that the banks are in complete disarray right now regarding REOs. He says there are lawsuits flying every which way right now regarding who was responsible for what and, in some instances, there are no clear answers as to who, exactly, owns the various properties in question. This probably goes to the heart of why some folks have been living in homes for the past year or two that they haven’t been paying on and no one has contacted them regarding foreclosure.