jpinpb, what would you guess is the estimated size of the foreclosure inventory that’s NOT on the MLS (or “in the stats,” so to speak)?

I think right now there are about 13K properties for sale in SD county. That’s the official number. I’m guessing that about half of these are foreclosures.

Anecdotally, I’m familiar with a few large condo projects – one old and very large, two newer – and it appears that there’s about one non-MLS foreclosure for each one that’s listed. But that’s a small sample.

Anyhow, if we assume that there’s one “shadow” foreclosure for every foreclosure actually on the MLS, then that would add about 6,500 foreclosures to the “real” SD county inventory. 6,500 seems like an pretty large number of non-MLS foreclosures even for a county the size of SD, but… I suppose it could be that large. Or larger. Why not?

Since you’ve been noodling around with these property numbers a lot, what’s your guess? And I’m not talking about future foreclosures. I’m talking already foreclosed properties that just haven’t yet hit the MLS.