[quote=temeculaguy]Josh or anyone else please chime in, when it hits 6k or 5k or 4k, is any of it a signal to buy? Ignoring the dow and the s&p per se, is there a date or a circumstance that you see a moderate term (1-5 years) stock play that is a value. As hammered as some stocks are, picking up something for 10 cents on the dollar (albeit that dollar was an inflated value) as a deal.
Like many people, I have my investments spread around in different areas and in different accounts, but I have one that is my pure gambling fund. The 401k, the cash reserves, the canned food, the ammo, the water, all that is covered. I’ve got 5 or 6k in the gambling fund that I thought I might play with on etrade. Just realize that this money, if lost isn’t going to prevent me from eating, the gambling fund is reserved for vegas, strip clubs, golf weekends, you know, things I can and probably should live without. Success with stocks out of the gambling fund will just finance more debauchery but play along wont you. Assuming 5 different 1k purchases, what are your thoughts on these stocks: Harley Davidson, GE, Ford, Costco, Phillip Morris, and Hovnanian.
Which one would you drop from the list?
I know they are all in the crapper, some may not survive the year. If a single one returns to glory it would cover the other 4 (with the exception of costco and PM, they are only down by half, the others are small fractions of their previous value). Harley and GE have P/E’s of like 3, costco actually had higher sales recently yet has gotten beaten up just because it is a traded stock, cigarettes in foriegn countries, winner, winner, chicken dinner. I think ford may make it, their new hybrids look impressive, maybe they will understand just in time. I think hovnanian homes as a penny stock is worth a look. While I don’t own a harley, their brand loyalty amongst their customers is unparalleled, it’s like a cult, they literally will stop being friends with someone for purchasing another brand, I just don’t see them vanishing from the planet in my lifetime.
So there are my bottom feeder picks, they are all in the crapper right now and going lower every day, fast. At dow 6000, dow 4000, or whatever, what do you think of these gambles? Let’s just say that the country doesn’t end up a nuclear wasteland, some companies will survive on the other side, any ideas on which ones and no safe plays, keep the gambling fund ideals in mind.[/quote]
Let’s see how this would have played out based on my March 5th question, let’s use March 6th prices had I bought 1k of each the next day, like I had planned. Compared to the closing prices Friday
HOG 8.33 to 20.44 1k=2,453
GE 7.06 to 12.11 1k=1,715
F 1.70 to 5.00 1k=2,941
HOV .58 to 2.37 1k=4,086
COST 38.98 to 48.17 1k=1,235
MO 15.72 to 16.92 1k=1,076
Friday’s value for the 6k intitial investment would have been 13,506, a profit of 7,506 had I been able to locate my scrotum at the same time I located my brain.
I read countless articles from pundits and experts who did a very good job explaining how they had perfected formulas and theorums that explained that I was wrong and they were right and if I buy their book or read their articles I can be right like them. I was convinced once again that I didn’t know what I was doing and I should be afraid of all the uncertainty. They can blow me!
