That may be the ugliest sign for the future I’ve seen yet.
The change in source in ’04 slightly distorts the situation, but even using the same source, it’s quite scary. Here’s an article that contains a graph using dataquick data for the whole time frame. The ’96 peak, using dataquick data, is about 3900 vs. about 3300 using the other info.
(As a side note, I find it strange that in that article NPR, which usually gives us relatively intelligent reporting, would quote this Burns character on when the market will bottom. He’s trying to get a bunch of people to pay for his course to learn how to profit now from the downturn by buying houses. If his potential customers think the bottom is 5 years away, his business suffers. Maybe NPR figures its readers can figure this out for themselves.)
Anyway, the sudden and steep rise in NODs is, to me, probably the scariest thing I’ve seen yet regarding the future of San Diego real estate. I didn’t expect it to rise that quickly until all the 5-year resets for homes bought in spring ’04 and after.
I’m curious why it’s going up so fast already. And I wonder if it can continue upward at this pace for very long. And I wonder what’ll happen in ’09-’11 when all the 5-year ARMs taken out in ’04-’06 reset.
