I, too, welcome contrarian points of view. Especially ones with a decent argument behind them. The view expressed above is “don’t hold your breath.” Which I take to mean, “prices won’t fall that much.” But the only supporting evidence that I see behind this particular view (and of course could be missing something, correct me if I am) is that “There are people that won’t put their living situation on hold and wish to move into something different or need to make an adjustment to their mortgage. It happens everyday and it’s a factor that will never change.” While that is all true, it has very little bearing on what’s coming next. The same thing has been true during every real estate bust in history. Yet there have been busts. Big ones.

If you have other reasons why you think prices won’t fall much, I’d be interested to hear them.