Allen-I agree Hubbert linerization has it’s detractors, no doubt that will happen when you make a call like that. Still the guy nailed the US peak to the year and called a 2006 peak for the world, which looks pretty freakin accurate, back in 56′. Peak oil is nothing more than observation. They modeling is something different all together. There are 3 independent, highly respected, groups. ASPO, Energy Watch Group out of Germany and a Canadian one all pointing to the 2005-2010 peak. Including and handful of other independent giants in the industry all using different modeling technics pointing as far out as 2012.
Given recent data and observations most conclude that between 2005-2008 was a bumpy plateau that could have possibly been pushed out another 2-4 years if demand would have remained high. Still we can observe that from between 2004-2008, even with increased prices that increased production did not follow. We can observe that lower energy density oil took the place of higher to maintain the plateau. This matters in the real world but not the spread sheet one. We can clearly observe that the majority of oil producing regions are in decline, some incredibly steep. We can observe all new mega-projects, which usually turn out to be 3 or 4 times less than originally anticipated, and roughly calculated anticipated out put, which is usually lower than anticipated. We can observe the discovery has been going down since 1962. We can observe that we consume 5 barrels for ever 1 we find. We can observe that extraction technology peak out in the 90s. Technology usually follows a shark fin curve where it tops out. My point being observations and recent data make things very clear regardless what the detractors say. Think official sources regarding economic matters back in 2006. They are saying what are you going to believe me or your lying eyes. And really quibbling over precise date when even the most optimistic official sources put it out 10-15 years is a little silly. All official sources revised their predictions downward the end of last year due to looking really stupid. Most studies done by independent groups and the EIA have stated that you need at least 20 years to mitigate without disaster.
CERA, Big oil and the EIA have all continuously been wrong over the past 5 years, and probably have vested interest in being wrong, kind of like the Fed. ASPO and others have not and don’t. You have to admit “Official” sources are not good at saying anything other than the status quo these days.
Olduval theory is interesting. That was more of a life span of industrial civilization. Duncan predicted industrial civilization going off a cliff in 2012 and ending in 2030 this was all predicated on energy per capita. The 2 billion is a carrying capacity of the earth without oil. Their is some merit to that due to the dependance of industrial agriculture on petro-chemicals. Google “the oil we eat”, it’s a good article on the subject.
In typical human fashion we won’t change anything we have to. Still as in finance, it looks, to me, like we are putting everything on black 17 and spinning the wheel.
Maybe, it’s just me but I don’t think taking the most extreme optimistic predictions given by people with vested interest in be optimistic is wise. The oil story follows the same line as the bubble story. Deny until you can’t anymore.
Still my main premise is given that we have not been able to pull more production out of the ground over the past 5 years regardless of price. Don’t you think it would wise for the entire economic world to take notice. Because it sure as hell matters. And given that observation, shouldn’t it be included any economic recovery strategy.
If you entertained such expectations you would be speechless upon looking at the Table of Contents of top journals in economics.
As robustly demonstrated by the latest editions of the American Economic Review, Econometrica, Journal of Political Economy, Journal of Economic Theory, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Journal of Econometrics, Econometric Theory, Review of Economic Studies, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Journal of Monetary Economics, Games and Economic Behavior, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Review of Economics and Statistics, European Economic Review, and International Economic Review, the looming oil emergency did not unfetter the wings of creativity in the highest echelons of the profession. (Ranking of journals was borrowed from Professor W.C. Horrace, University if Syracuse.)
Does the bulk of academe still believe in the simplistic myth that, thanks to the never-ceasing interaction between always-ready Mr. Backstop Technology and irresistible Ms. Unregulated Market, the world is already pregnant with a solution to its oil predicament, that the everlasting neediness of material goods will never ever meet unalterable physical constraints
