I think we are going to see a more schizophrenic housing market then we have seen in the past. It appears to me that housing is usually composed of fairly stable secular cycles that last several years, kind of like slow rolling waves across an ocean. Also I think that in the past we had pretty static processes that were in place for the financing of homes. The distortion we saw in the current bubble was for the most part caused by a radical change in those processes, primarly the lending industry. This induced a cycle that went out of bounds that we saw from a historical perspective. From a national perspective we are now seeing the ripple effect in the form of extraordinary measures taken by our government that I for one, never thought I would see in my lifetime.
JPINPB has said that she doesn’t even know the rules anymore. I could not agree more. I don’t know the rules anymore so it is hard to define the game. On the one hand we have as left leaning a government as we have ever had. By the same token that same left wing government is just as much as a suckling pig to Wall Street as any right wing government we have ever had as well. Look if you were a friend to Geitner or Paulson or whoever, your company will be backstopped. If not then you may be hung out to dry. It really is as simple as that.
Sorry for straying from your question… I think that I underestimated the ferocity of this spring rally WILDLY. I think we could even see median prices start to rise again. I think it will be an amazing battle royale between the forces of a poor economy and a subsidized market. Where those that benefit the most will be those who are helped the most by the government. Those who build freeways, work for the government at all levels, build schools, and are simply thriving because the government decided that these are the people who need the stimulus the most, will do well and buy homes. Those who are in industries that are not subsidized will suffer more… How that will affect housing? I think you will see more uneven behavior, stronger cyclical rallies and declines within the overall secular depreciating envelope. However that overall secular depreciating envelope is NOT going to be the same for all house types and will start to diverge substantially as more areas do indeed hit price to rent ratios that make sense.
The kicker is of course inflation but more and more I feel that is a longer way off, a few years.
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Now are Stonebridge and 4S at a bottom? I just don’t think so yet. To me I think out of all the freakiness, unemployment still is the hammer. However even at 15% unemployment that means over 8 out of 10 people are working. That is a hell of alot of people still able to get a job. Try as anyone might to tell me that there are not alot of buyers out there, I know that is false, there are more buyers out there now then I have seen in 3 years FOR certain properties. If you are in 4S and priced competitively you are going to sell your home.
Anyways, I am not sure if I am being clear….probably not. I think waiting is good but I think waiting with an expectation that in a few months things will change radically may be unrealistic. Having a 2010-2011 horizon may be much more realistic with regards to the areas you are looking in and hoping for larger depreciation.
I can tell you that the latest plan from Geitner for removing toxic assets off the books will indeed be interesting with how it helps bank cope with the upcoming wave of loans that need to be recast. To say he just gave them an out is an understatement.
