privatebanker, what is the annual return of the average CFP, or the one that you recommend? Their track records are no better than the average Joe.

I believe Chris was talking about a stock market rally off a low, begining in October/November, and lasting for one year or two years. What we have here is not the mid-year election cycle rally at all. First, only a few Dow stocks are making the highs, while the rest of the market is flat. Second, it is highly likely that this rally will die in the next month or so, because it is going counter to business profits.

This is not a true all-stock rally scenario, and it cannot last. Bernanke is warning about a slowdown, profits are down, sales are slowing, the economy is definitely slowing by all accounts, and a few Dow stocks rally: that is not a stock market rally! It’s a delusion by those who think that the Fed is going to lower interest rates and save this economy. As Roubini said, any lowering the do will be too late, and the stock market will go down down down….

Buying stocks now is like buying a condo in July 2005. It seemed like such a good idea at the time…. Getting in at the end, holding at the end, is where you lose your money.