I’ve been following a neighborhood in San Marcos that seems to be a good gauge of what is going on overall in this market. In June there were 15 homes for sale in this 120 home community, none pending or sold, all priced at comps. In August, still 15 for sale, but one was also for rent and a third to half were reduced. Early September I drove through and there were 12 for sale and 3 for rent. Finally, last week there were only 8 for sale and all were reduced, 3 for rent, all the rest cancelled. One of the 8 had listed in March at 725k and now has 589k as the lower end of the range!

Conclusions:
-Some sellers really want out = huge reductions.
-Other sellers have cancelled and will re-list in Spring.
-Median prices reported this Fall will be ugly. I don’t remember seeing price drops like this in June and July and once these things sell it will really pull things down.