Where does your 306,000 number come from? SD is only generating ~40,000 sales/year at peak. Roughly only the last two years are exposed on an equity basis. Plus whomever refi’d to the max.

I’m thinking it looks like you’re off by a factor ten. Which is still quite phenomenal given a quarterly default of 9500 homes.

Even if you adjust the actual default from 95% to something like 33%, you still end up with 3000+ defaults, which at August’s current sales rates, is an entire quarter worth of sales.

That’s probably the uglier way of looking at it. How few actually defaults need to occur to get to over half of the home sale volume being defaults.