[quote=FormerSanDiegan]Submitted by FormerSanDiegan on June 4, 2007 – 11:03am.
[quote=FormerSanDiegan]I believe that the seasonal strength remaining in some areas this Spring will be a faint memory by September.
I anticipate that for SD county the bulk of the price drops in the area-wide numbers (e.g. median and Case-Shiller) will take place in 2007 and 2008. Looking back to the last downturn, the largest price declines were a couple years after the peak. We are entering that period now in San Diego.

It will look like a sharp decline in terms of the numbers, but as many here have noted, the changes in median price in this cycle has lagged the changes in similar house comparisons. I view the next 2 years as the reports finally catching up.

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I will stick with what I said 15 months ago. I suspect that the bulk of the median price decline is behind us as 2008 ended. I expect that the median will still creep lower, until the high end finally drops to the point where there is activity in that part of the market.

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FSD,
Looks like you pretty much hit a dead ringer. If the rest comes true you will have one of the most consistently accurate records and I believe it predates this blog. Your future predictions seem likely.