[quote=SD Realtor]Arraya I am a realtor and a homeowner and I don’t think it is hard to see at all. If you feel Mira Mesa and other like areas that have already had a substantial depreciation hit will add another 10-20% then I do have a disagreement. I think those areas and others like them will depreciate but at a slower rate then your prediction. As for 20% in some of the higher end areas? Yeah I think I can see that.

Although I would say that according to some of the thoughts that you have posted that are somewhat more apocalyptic, housing would be the least of our problems wouldn’t you think?

I wanted to add that it really will be based on unemployment and the willingness by the world to continue to extend us credit. [/quote]

lol. I was making some broad generalizations in regards to housing bulls and price declines. My apologies. Though, I think even the hardest hit areas will see more declines driven by rents falling. Extreme example: Detroit homes have fallen almost 90% since peak and they are still falling. They started falling in 03. And no I am not making a comparison of Detroit to SD but it is still a good example of what employment can do to an area.

Yes, I agree the wild card is our foreign creditors and there willingness to lend to us. Personally I think the probability is very high that the world will reject to dollar thus massively devaluing it in the near future. China just said they are watching the “progress” of our economy and “nervous” about the amount of money they have lent us. This is a very big monkey wrench possibly with a military ramifications.

And Yes, I think housing is the least of our worries right now, though I like to follow housing stats for other purposes, plus I’m a data junkie. I was just trying advise scardycat that time is on his side and to wait and see w/o getting to apocalyptic;)