sdrebear chose to post the definition of “expect” and if you read both definitions, you’ll see that risk and expectations are very different things.
You see the word certain in the definition for expect, whereas you’ll find nothing like this in the definition of risk. Sure, expectations aren’t always met, but they do imply a much higher degree of realization of the stated outcome.
and lamoneyguy, you are correct, PS never said certainly and I was mistaken to state that (sorry PS!). I think we do agree about the difference in the level of certainty between risk and expectations however.
It’s interesting to note that Cagen never used the word expect in his article with regard to the number of defaults because he likely understands the important distinction between the two.
I’m not trying to nit, and I’m not trying to pick on anyone, but I understand where people are coming from on this issue. I, and I’m sure many others, read it as ~1.5 million loans will default because of the word “expect”. Had the title read “risk”, it probably would have been taken as anywhere from 146,000 to 500,000 or so.
