jg, it’s clever to use a different set of variables for the peak vs. the trough. Maybe you could put both models into one post, and explain it so that even dense people like me can understand it, and give the buy and sell dates so we can see how accurate it is.

When you say the actual price trough was in 12/95 at $168K, are you referring to the median price? Median price is a lagging indicator. Or are you using OFHEO data for that?

I think the inputs to this trough may be different from the last time, and I’d like your thoughts on that. I’m thinking of comments by the builders, who say that in past housing downturns, unemployment or high interest rates were the culprit, but this is the first housing downturn in an environment of low interest rates and high employment. We’ve also got a unique lending environment, where someone straight out of bankruptcy is getting a 60% DTI loan, 0% down, stated income, qualified based on the teaser rate, and whose payment can exceed their gross monthly income at reset. How will this unique lending environment affect the trough? Perhaps these loans will show up in the NOD and employment data that you already use.