Give powayseller a break. I, for one, am willing to forgive her for any faux-pas because I’m thankful for the analysis. It was very bold of her to come straight out with a -50% forecast. I believe that many of the scenarios she considered are coming to fruition. Few have the guts to say what she did. Most would incrementally change their forecast in small steps as the situation deteriorates.

I think that powayseller has super analytical skills and a great feel of where the market is heading.

When you try to predict the future you always have to make assumptions like x% of ARMs will default. Sure they haven’t defaulted yet but let’s just imagine that they would.

So what if her delivery is at times blunt? If she were circumspect and qualified everything that she said as only possibilities, her writing would be very boring and long-winded.