lots of people calling for a bottom around mid-5000 for the Dow followed by a rally back up to 9500 to 10500

then comes the big decline down to the ultimate low for this bear market – Richard Russell pointed out recently that we COULD be (nobody knows ahead of time) retracing the entire rise of the Dow from the 41 point level in the 1940’s to the 2007 high – only hindsight will tell us for sure

a bottom around 5500 with a rally back to 10K’ish followed by a decline to the ultimate low would be similar to the 1929 to 1932 behavior of the Dow – more money was lost on the second decline than the first because the bear market rally sucked everybody back into the market

rest assured that during the coming rally all the talking heads will be singing the praises of Obama’s recovery and how there is nothing but sunshine and lollipops forevermore – and people like me will be trying to get their friends and family out of the stock market before the big decline but will be labelled as gloom and doomers, conspiracy theorists, etc …