It was intentionally released IMO, in the same fashion that the government and military selectively choose to release items of interest while downplaying others, thus creating a media story. The NAR are engaged in a classic game of information operations and their goal is to influence the mass psychology of the American populace into maintaining their confidence in the housing market. They now have no choice but to admit that the data is bad, so the new strategy is to present that data and in the process build trust. They then ignore most of that data and find a way to craft a prediction that involves a mere soft landing, or slight downward trend with an eventual return to appreciation. Not the rapid appreciation that we have come to expect, but we can all sleep well at night knowing it will only fall 2.8% and then rise again in a few years. Consider what would result if the NAR approached this from an unbiased perspective. The mere prediction of a large decline would drive the market down further, cause people to lose faith in housing and pose a huge risk to the economist if he were wrong. This is why they always stick with the soft landing scenario! HP considered putting spies in newsrooms…what has the NAR been up to?