[quote=Oxford]My $929k, LCV home has been on the market for three weeks with lots of traffic and no offers. [/quote]
I think you should remove your listing from the market if you are not in a must-sell situation, and hold for 5+ years.
The way I see it, the withdraw from Iraq and the cancellation of “cold war” weapon orders will make an immediate dent to San Diego economy this summer to the next year (Fall 2010).
And for late 2010 and 2011, some those people who had been responsible and saved, will draw on their savings and hope for the best. Then eventually (my prediction: fall 2011 to spring 2012), the national debts, desperated hosing market and increased CA tax will drive them out of CA.
They will leave a lot of high middle end SFH on the market (500K – 900K).
The SD housing will not see sales with 10+% (price 2+%) increase in summer before 2015, and the peak price will never be seen before 2020.
OK, that is such a bold prediction, so I must have this to cover my ass:
Unless we have 5+% inflation
If China/Japan keep buying our paper, Obama will keep spending, and we will be able to keep the rate low and banking system stable.
If not, we will see high inflation on commodity price (15+%) which will translate to 7+% inflation and he will not be re-elected, if the inflation happened before 2011. And this will lead to a Republican strike back in 2012 to 2016, which will hike rates and we will see 10+% on jumbo loans.
So, will they stop buying our papers ?
I think Japan will have to, but China may not.
Japan has limited domestic market and they have to sell to US (and own our greenback and bonds).
China, on the other hand, will try (and is trying) to start produce things for their 1B farmers. And that means we may not see $10 toaster in Wal Mart soon. Without China buying our bonds, either our domestic institutes have to step up (and lose their capital to real production invetement), or to see rate hike. Either way, we will see inflation.
So, the question is “when” china will start selling to themselves in large scale. It is just starting…..
So, Oxford, just wait five years and see if the inflation catch up and maybe you can sell your house for 1M+ in 2013
