A commentator on CNBC, when asked if he was going to buy or short the market at the end of the speech, said “I’m shorting it right now.”
Apparently he had his Crackberry with him and was doing it while talking, or he was channeling a lot of other people who were:
Pretty impressive little volume spike, and those sure weren’t “buys” that came through on the futures.
There was no real reaction during the speech itself, but as soon as it was over, well, 0.6% isn’t massive, but it is what it is, considering that we were essentially flat coming into the speech itself.
What the market was clearly looking for was a clear, concise plan to deal with the mess. I didn’t hear that; I heard lots of sizzle (“we’ll make sure the banks have enough capital”) but no steak, and after Geithner’s fumble that’s unlikely to be good enough.
Can this be taken as a verdict on the reaction tomorrow? No; that waits for the morning as there’s just not enough volume there to really know – the total across that 3-4 minute time frame was some 6,000 contracts. Not tiny, but insignificant during the day (or even after Europe opens.) But it sure is an “instant reaction” by those with futures trading accounts who were watching President Obama’s first “State of The Union”, and who voted with the only thing that matters – their checkbooks.
This had better not spread into a broad selloff tomorrow. While the S&P 500 is back above the critical support levels, its not above them by much, and the DOW has not regained them. Should those levels be lost technicians will take that as proof of a “kissback” and the market will get shorted HARD, creating an immediate waterfall collapse.
The probability of that outcome if those closing levels in the SPX are lost (just 1% or so further down) is nearly 100%.
If he was looking to inspire the market, the first-blush read on his success has to be rather simple:
FAIL
As for Jindal’s response (The Republican’s view) I have to give that this vote:
FAIL FAIL FAIL
Jesus. I mean, really. There was such an opportunity here.
The Republicans are absolutely f%#king tone-deaf. This is the party that has preached LAW AND ORDER when it comes to drugs, when it comes to property crime, when it comes to all sorts of things for which we lock up people.
EXCEPT when homeowners lied about their incomes, banking executives lied to buyers of so-called “AAA” securities about the diligence they did on the loans inside them, brokers doctored paperwork, appraisers were bribed to inflate values and every industry involved connived to wrap things in gold-colored foil and claim that was was inside was solid 24kt gold itself when what they were really selling was dogcrap!
IF the Republican party is ever to regain power they must actually stand for the people. The vast majority of Americans did not cheat. We did not lie about our incomes, we did not take out dangerous mortgages, were did not participate in selling garbage loans to Americans by deceiving them so we could skim off thousands in fees and we did not participate in this garbage.
We, however, are the ones who are getting hosed – we’re being asked to pay higher taxes, either directly (ourselves) or indirectly (as when “the rich” are taxed more they will not hire as many people – that would be those of us who need jobs!)
The Banksters are getting bailed out, the irresponsible or even outright cheaters are going to be able to refinance their mortgages (despite what Obama said tonight, Sheila Bair said otherwise – there will be no verification that fraud was not involved in the mortgages they refinance) and not one prosecution is being planned for those who screwed us.
And, as I finish this up, the futures are continuing to tank – now down six handles, or 0.8% – and declining.
