inv was 3K in April, 6K in summer, and 12K in Sept 04. It was definitely slowing in 04; my friend sold her condon in March 04 in a day, but her neighbor tried selling in June when inventory had doubled and it took her a long time and some price reductions. Condos got hit first, and the ripple effect moved up to mid pricedhomes in05.

On the way down, RE is sticky. Prices come down very slow. The big drops will occur later on, when ARMs reset, and sellers finally realize they’ve got to drop their prices if they want to sell.

Look at my other post about my 3 neighbors chasing down the market. None of them shaved off 10%, ie doing the reverse of what it did on the way up. Each of them is 20% overpriced, if not more.

I think the biggest percentage drops will come in spring 08, as sellers realize that the spring 07 rebound did not happen, and RE is dead.