These last exchanges between me and my friend Chris led me to questions the usefulness of economic forecasting for making money.
How useful is economic forecasting to investors? Look at people like Chris, who have made a living off trading, and who doesn’t give a darn about recessions. It’s not even in his model. He can make a bundle without ever looking at unemployment, recessions, or consumer spending. It seems to me that a good trader beats a good economist any day.
I think economic forecasting is important for businesses, government, and long term buy and hold investors. I use it to measure the business cycle, and know when to get in and out of the stock market.
Do most traders beat most economists at investing?
