Chris, I really enjoy these lively discussions with you, because you are so smart and such a good trader. I wish I could fast forward time, to see how the stock market and economy will be in one year. I place Chris and Roubini in equal high regard. Chris uses technical analysis, and expects a stock market gain of over 20%, while Roubini uses economic analysis and expects a stock market fall of 28%. We’ve got a #1 trader vs. a #1 economist. Who will be right?

As we head into the fall, I expect that the technical indicators will start showing the bear market approach. As housing continues cooling, companies’ earnings will keep getting hit, and as foreclosures rise, investors will start worrying about lenders and the consumer’s ability to keep consuming. It just takes time for this all to unravel.

I don’t know what Roubini risks in the market, but he is certainly risking his reputation and future income as a consultant by his predictions. He is boldly sticking out his neck in predicting a recession. I don’t consider accurate analysis “doom and gloom”. By 2008, as foreclosures mount and the stock market is caught in a rut,, I hope Roubini and I will be blogging about the next upturn; nobody will believe it though.

Chris, let me ask you this: if I say that tonight at 8pm it will be dark, would you call me a doom and gloomer for bringing up the subject? The economy is the same way: it goes in cycles of bull and bear markets. It’s the law of nature at work. Rest and activity are the steps of progress. It is one of the laws of nature.