Poway, if I didn’t know any better I would think you just enjoyed constantly being proven wrong in a public forum.
So, since it’s the gist of your criticism, I challenge you to find one single discussion that we’ve had where I didn’t state a clear opinion or conclusion on the issue at hand. One.
As an aid in your sure-to-be-dogged efforts, among the issues we’ve recently addressed include:
Real estate prices: My long-standing prediction has been a 30%-35% decline in the median price from peak to trough here in San Diego. I’ve mentioned this a few times along with a possible time line (which will almost certainly be wrong, but nevertheless…).
Stock prices as an economic indicator: You incorrectly stated (and then argued) they’re a lagging indicator; I pointed out correctly that they’re a leading indicator.
Option ARM mortgage defaults: I suggested that they would be far below 50%; you stated that they would be more than 50%. Moreover, you never did respond to my offer to make a bet on this issue. Thus, how do we really know how YOU feel on this issue? How deliciously ironic given your criticism of me in this thread! File under: “Pot calls kettle black.”
Market efficiency: I stated that I believed in the strong form of market efficiency in the short-term, and the weak-to-semi-strong form over the long-term. You stated that you didn’t believe the stock market was efficient without specifying pesky details regarding degree or time horizon.
WAMU short: I clearly stated that I would not short WAMU because its short-term price movements were basically unknowable to me based on my lack of unique information about the company. I acknowledged that its price could fall at some point in the future but that I wasn’t interested in “taking a swing” – so to speak – at that particular investment because I have more promising opportunities in other areas where I have a competitive advantage.
All that being said, let me come out in favor of NOT ALWAYS having an opinion. Despite the fact that I’ve pointed out in this post areas where I HAVE stated my opinion, having an opinion merely for the sake of having an opinion (something quite popular on this site) is not a particularly admirable trait. In fact, the three most important words that any good investor (and human) learns to utter early in his or her career (life) are: “I don’t know.” The know-it-alls who can’t say “I don’t know and therefore I don’t have an opinion” often end up as President, have ridiculous stock picking shows on CNBC, or run companies like Enron into bankruptcy. And often when you put forth a strong opinion regarding something you don’t really know about you just end up being revealed as a buffoon. As Winston Churchill once observed, “It is better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to open one’s mouth and remove all doubt.”
Because of my profession, however, I do hold opinions regarding a number of the issues on this site, many of which I’ve stated. So, with reference to your particular criticism, indulge me by giving me one issue we (that is, both of us) have discussed in which I did not state a clear opinion or conclusion. One. I encourage you to enlist nancy’s help. Best of luck!
