The big money knows there are still stock opportunities during any economic cycle. It is still beyond me why anyone would look at something that has never failed and take the it is different this time approach. Different this time arguments are not in my techniques so it is hard for me to answer that question any other way. Some of my cronies took that approach last year as non-believers in the year ending in 5 rally (please no discussions on that this one has worn me out already), which has also never failed. They shorted the rally and got wiped out criticizing my long position. The argument was “well we know this has never failed, but this time it will because ……”
One of my good friends blew out of a few million with his different this time argument, ironically he probably did not learn his lesson. Also, he never called to congratulate me on beating the indexes by 19% last year in what was basically a flat year overall, slightly up.
Like I always say, “I may be wrong.” I am never so dead convinced that anything I do is a sure thing, that is a dead man’s mentality as a trader. I play the probabilities which heavily favor a rally, place the stops and move on.
Have you ever considered that there might not be a recession in this time frame? Maybe the political manipulations due to the election will forestall this? Maybe that is why there has not been one before during this cycle? How could you not have considered that? This assertion that no recessions have happened during this 2 year window that begins every four years is false by the way. The trade is a two year hold.
PW – I have thorough coverage of this topic in my newsletter coming out tommorrow. When you see it there may be a few more things for you to consider.
I always remind myself not to fall in love with my own opinion on things, if I do I should not fall in love with my money because it will be leaving me. I fail to see why it is so important to determine if there will be a recession or not. All that means is two consecutive qtrs with negative GDP growth. BIG DEAL. Plenty of money is made during down cycles also, just shift assets away from overvalued classes(RE) to undervalued ones. Most of you are so intelligent, get rid of the deer in the headlights due to the recession mindset and put that brain power to work.
I see some of that, but more fear of the recession than action plans of what to do about it.
